Weekend Pundit

Perceived Risk Triumphs Over Fact

The choice of parents to not vaccinate their children has become all too prevalent. Far too often they choice is made in fear and ignorance, not understanding the risks of leaving their children unprotected. Because of this, communicable diseases that became rare over the past 60 years or so are making a comeback. And sometimes these diseases cripple. Sometimes they kill.

Most of the time a parent that refuses to have their child vaccinated cites the increasing incidence of autism, blaming it upon the preservative in the vaccine, thimerosal. This shows their ignorance as this preservative hasn't been used in vaccines in the US for years. Instead, they'd rather endanger their children, as well as the children of others, by refusing or delaying their vaccinations. It's just so much pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo, showing how people in this country have lost the ability to think critically and are now unable to separate fact from fiction. They let fear rule them and fall prey to a skewed perception of threat, believing a minuscule risk is far more dangerous than the consequences of not vaccinating against deadly diseases. And far too often they pay the price, that being the life of their child, who dies of an otherwise preventable disease.

But at least they won't be autistic when they die. [/sarcasm]

RoHS Strikes Again

Last September I wrote about our impending electronic Armageddon due to Europe's Restrictions On Hazardous Substances, or RoHS.

As part of RoHS Europe mandated the removal of lead from electronic components and solder, replacing them with lead-free solders, most of which have a very high tin content. The only problem with them is they have an unfortunate tendency to grow tin whiskers which, after some period of time, can cause failures in electronic circuits when they short them out. These problems don't manifest themselves quickly. Rather, it takes two or three years before the problems arise.

You may ask yourself, “If it's such a problem, then why haven't here been any mass failures of electronic gadgets?” The answer is simple: It's been less than two years since this requirement went into effect. Give it another year or so and the problem will become quite evident.

But wait, there's more!

Europe now wants to expand the scope of RoHS, adding more substances to its banned list.

Now before you get on your high horse, let me make something perfectly clear: I have no problem with removing hazardous substances from the electronics waste flow. My problem is with politicians and bureaucrats with little knowledge about such things making decisions about them without understanding the consequences of such actions. The example of lead in electronic solders is just one instance of their blundering in order to push through feel-good laws. Before they start adding even more substances to their bans perhaps they should evaluate the effects of the bans already in place. I think they may find that they were too hasty in banning at least one substance.

Will the EU listen to industry concerns? Unlikely. Will they go forward with banning even more substances without regards to foreseeable but unfortunate consequences? Absolutely. The only problem is that it will be you and I picking up the tab for that shortsightedness. In fact, we already are.

There Oughta Be A Law

A local debate here in New Hampshire illustrates a problem that occurs all too often all throughout the US. It usually starts with the cry of “There oughta be a law!”

One of the more contentious debates going on here is about boating speed limits. Some folks believe that it's necessary to impose a 45mph daytime and 25mph nighttime speed limit on all of New Hampshire's lakes, ponds, and rivers. The argument goes that it will cure many of the ills experienced by people out on our state's inland waters. So far those against such a speed limit have been able to hold back efforts to run a pilot program on New Hampshire's biggest lake, Lake Winnipesaukee, and quash any further efforts until next year.

For those of you out there that aren't boaters, this debate may seem a little strange. The reasoning behind it is that many of us out there on New Hampshire's inland waters have to deal with sometimes hazardous conditions caused by clueless or inconsiderate boaters. From my experiences out on the lake over the years I can say that the problem has not been boaters going too fast in general so much as they aren't following existing rules and regulations.

One of the most ignored regulations deals with speeds allowed when within 150 feet of the shore or from another boat that is either stopped or moving slowly. The rules state that we are not to go above a speed needed to maintain headway or 6mph, whichever is slower (headway means enough speed to maintain control of the boat). But I've seen many boats pass close by shore or other boats at much higher speeds, which can cause damage to shorelines, boats tied at docks, or cause slow moving or stopped boats to be swamped by the offending boat's wake. It's a simple rule, really.

But somehow this has all been turned into a drive to impose speed limits on the inland waters. Frankly, such a law will do nothing except create yet another law that the state's Marine Patrol will have a tough time enforcing. Better that the existing laws, rules, and regulations be enforced than adding yet another one.

And so it is with many of the laws in the other states and the nation as a whole. When the cry of “There oughta be a law!” goes up, it is really nothing more than a means of creating yet another piece of feel-good legislation. People will be able to point and say that they did something about the perceived problem.

But nothing will change, at least not until the laws that are already on the books are enforced.

A Twilight Zone Trip To The Bathroom

Received via e-mail:

Imagine you're at a party.

You've been drinking.

And now you have to go to the bathroom.

You open the door....

Now remember, the bathroom floor is a painted floor.

Talk about taking your breath away! It would mess up anyone's mind, drunk or sober.

"No Cut" Policy Is Left Coast Lunacy

Anyone of you folks out there that have read this blog for any length of time know, I am one of those people that look upon Political Correctness and any of the associated foolishness that goes along with it - like efforts to build self-esteem in children by cheapening their achievements by making them meaningless - with derision and scorn.

I had hoped that none of that Left Coast crap, particularly the self-esteem building, would infect the populace here in New Hampshire. Unfortunately that hope was in vain.

As Doug at GraniteGrok informs us, a member of the local school board wants to institute a “no cut” policy for all varsity sports in our school system. What problem does the school board member think that this policy will solve?

The more I thought about this, the more pissed off I became. All through the weekend I pondered the import of this development, worried that our society may be doomed.

For some reason the focus of education has become building self-esteem rather than teaching children. For the life of me I cannot figure out why self-esteem has become so important. From my experience, self-esteem is vastly overrated. There are plenty of people out there with low self-esteem that are well educated and, in some cases, quite successful. There are also a lot of people out there with great self-esteem but are total layabouts, jerks, or worse, politicians. To give you an idea of how self-esteem has little to do with a child's success, there are plenty of inmates on death row that have it in spades. So in and of itself, self-esteem means very little.

Our misguided school board member somehow thinks that it would benefit everybody if our school system implemented the aforementioned “no-cut” policy in sports. What has been overlooked is that it will have a deleterious effect on those athletes who can actually play the game. And with some sports having a limit on the number of players on a team, the no-cut policy would be unworkable unless the school wants to be banned from playing within their conference.

What would motivate such a move by this board member? Perhaps it is as Doug says.

One of the classic characteristics of liberalism is the inability to make decisions and the avoidance of conflict at all costs. What exactly are we teaching our children about life when we engage in this sort of nonsense?

If there is no competition, there are no winners and losers, or so the reasoning goes. But it's false reasoning. With no competition, everybody loses. Everybody's achievements are cheapened because the bar has been set so low that it is impossible to 'fail'. And if it is impossible to fail, then there's no reason to work for one's success. A person may have great self-esteem under such a system, but they won't be able to do squat.

Picture yourself in the seat of an airliner. You have the choice of a pilot with loads of self-esteem or one that really knows what he or she is doing even if they have little self-esteem. Which one do you want to fly the plane you're on?

Fuzzy Thinking

As I have stated on more than one occasion, I am an engineer, working to develop and design test instruments based upon customer needs and marketing decisions. In our business fuzzy thinking can be the death knell for our company. So it came as a pleasant surprise when I came across this over at Random Jottings. It explains quite well the mindset engineers need to have in order to succeed in developing the products that are required. It also applies to life in general, whether you are talking about politics/family/your town/your country/the world, whether you are an engineer or not. John Weidner calls it a “tool for detecting fuzzy thought.”

I had written: Peter Drucker always taught that the key to making decisions is figuring out what the question actually is.

Reader Mike replied: I learned this when I started working alongside of engineers for a few years. It's probably the single most important thing I learned during that time.

Here's another key: things are defined as much by what they are, as what they are not. For example, when somebody suggests a new product that does A, B, and C, we take pains to clearly specify that the product will not do X, Y, or Z. This additional step is crucial in defining the problem we are trying to solve. In engineering terms, it's the difference between a product specification, and a wish list.

In more abstract terms, it's a great tool for detecting fuzzy thought. For example, ask a 9/11 conspiracy buff what the conspiracy could not have accomplished. What are its limits? If he says that anything was possible, then he's hoist in his own petard - "How do you know that Bill Clinton wasn't behind the whole thing?".

Well-formed thoughts have edges. Poorly-formed thoughts are like clouds that endlessly shift and fill the available space.

The "lack of limits" characterizes a lot of goofix thinking today. Whatever the criticism, people keep raising the bar, and can never be satisfied. A friend wrote to me, "I always point out that the people in the top 10% pay 66% of the taxes and then ask: How much do you think they should pay? What's the right number? I don't think I have ever gotten an answer."

The “lack of limits” is one of the problems with much of the It's-All-The-Fault-Of-The-[place name of group or person they're bitching this time, here] Left. They follow such a convoluted logic path that it is damn near impossible to follow their reasoning.

The same “lack of limits” also causes problems with any engineer's job. In my company we usually see it in the form of creeping elegance, where marketing wants to keep adding features until the end result has no resemblance at all to the original specifications. There comes a point where we have to say “No, this isn't going to work. If you want all of these features we'll need to start from scratch because we can't stretch the original design to accomplish everything you want.” If we don't say that, a inexpensive tool ends up becoming a costly does-everything box that very few can afford to buy and that won't work nearly as well as smaller, less expensive individual pieces of equipment designed to perform a specific function. And so it goes with life in general.

How many times have we seen what appears to be an excellent solution to a problem on the local/state/national/international level be turned into a bloated, unworkable boondoggle because fuzzy thinking causes all kinds of 'add-ons' that twist the original idea into something unrecognizable? Far too often, in my opinion. Everybody wants to add something, even if it has nothing to do with the original problem the solution was supposed to solve. We see this happen all the time, particularly in state legislatures and the halls of Congress.

It seems that it's also true that folks come up with solutions to 'problems' that aren't really problems. Or they take a small problem and blow it all out of proportion, trying to make it appear far larger than it really is, and then demanding a solution to the problem. But the solution turns out to be far more harmful than the original problem. Their fuzzy thinking makes connections between unrelated events and comes up with a conclusion that defies all logic. (It can be said that conspiracy theorists are masters at such thinking). Therefore, their solutions make as much sense.

I think that this is a pretty good place to stop this post as my thinking is getting a bit...umm...fuzzy.

I'm Headed To Mexico....

Received in an e-mail:

Dear President Bush,

I'm about to plan a little trip with my family and extended family, and I would like to ask you to assist me. I'm going to walk across the border from the U.S. into Mexico, and I need to make a few arrangements. I know you can help with this.

I plan to skip all the legal stuff like visas, passports, immigration quotas, and laws. I'm sure they handle those things the same way you do here.

So, would you mind telling your buddy, President Vicente Fox, that I'm on my way over? Please let him know that I will be expecting the following:

1. Free medical care for my entire family.

2. English-speaking government bureaucrats for all services I might need, whether I use them or not.

3. All government forms need to be printed in English.

4. I want my kids to be taught by English-speaking teachers.

5. Schools need to include classes on American culture and history.

6. I want my kids to see the American flag flying on the top of the flag pole at their school with the Mexican flag flying lower down.

7. Please plan to feed my kids at school for both breakfast and lunch.

8. I will need a local Mexican driver's license so I can get easy access to government services.

9. I do not plan to have any car insurance, and I won't make any effort to learn local traffic laws.

10. In case one of the Mexican police officers does not get the memo from Pres. Fox to leave me alone, please be sure that all police officers speak English.

11. I plan to fly the U.S. flag from my house top, put flag decals on my car, and have a gigantic celebration on July 4th. I do not want any complaints or negative comments from the locals.

12. I would also like to have a nice job without paying any taxes, and don't enforce any labor laws or tax laws.

13.Please tell all the people in the country to be extremely nice and never say a critical word about me, or about the strain I might place on the economy.

I know this is an easy request because you already do all these things for all the people who come to the U.S. from Mexico. I am sure that Pres. Fox won't mind returning the favor if you ask him nicely.

However, if he gives you any trouble, just invite him to go quail hunting with your V.P.

Thank you so much for your kind help.

Of Snow Tires And Air

It is appropriate, somehow, that on the first day of winter that Deb's car finally got its snow tires put on. Originally we'd hoped to have them on last Saturday, but time and weather conspired against us. That and the tires we needed for her car not being in stock at the tire store slowed things down. But today the Powers-That-Be relented and Deb's car now sports four brand new studded snow tires.

So what is it about snow tires that prompts me to write about today's events at the tire store? Would you believe air?

That's right. Air. You know, the stuff we breath and use for all kinds of things like blowing up beachballs and basketballs and, of course, tires? Yup, that stuff.

I overheard the counterman trying to sell a customer on the idea of spending an extra $4 per tire to inflate his new tires with nitrogen rather than plain old air. The explanation went something like this:

“You see, regular air is a mixture of gases. When you fill your tires with air, this mixture is what it is filled with. Let's say that on the day your tires are filled it's 70 degrees outside and the tire pressure is 32 pounds. Now when the temperature drops to 32 degrees this mixture contracts. That 32 pounds of air pressure is now only 26 pounds. But if you fill it with nitrogen, it won't compress nearly that much and your tire pressure will drop only a pound or two.”

It took all my will to not: laugh out loud; yell 'Liar, liar, pants on fire!”; whip out my calculator and prove him wrong by using the Ideal Gas Law to show he's full of sh...uh...manure and that the pressure wouldn't drop that much; correct him politely and inform him that it isn't the mixture that's the problem but the water vapor in the air, which is why they are using dry nitrogen; all of the above. In fact any dry gas or combination of gases - like air - would do as good. As long as the air was dry it would have as much effect as using nitrogen alone. It would also be cheaper. But does it need to be done at all? Probably not.

It kind of reminds me of people who would let the air out of their tires to replace the 'summer' air with 'winter' air to make the tires last longer by better maintaining pressure.

And in case you're interested, it would take a drop of 101 degrees – from 70ºF to -31ºF – to cause a 6 psi drop in tire pressure, all other things being equal. A temperature drop from 70ºF to 32ºF would produce only a 2 psi drop in pressure.

I just hope that the customer at the tire store didn't shell out the 16 bucks to have his tires filled with 'winter' air.

The Last Bastion Of Union Groupthink?

It appears the transit workers in New York were bound and determined to strike for what they wanted, even if I believe they are asking for far too much, expecting the taxpayers of New York to pony up the cash to fund an ever more unrealistic benefits package. You'd think they'd take a look at what's happening at GM and the UAW members to get a preview of what they're headed for.

Through the courtesy of my Dish satellite receiver I've been able to watch the unfolding strike and the reactions of New Yorkers as well as some of those on strike. Of the second group, the comments of one striker brought me up short, making me realize that this transit worker didn't have a clue about what was truly at stake.

“All we want is what is owed to us.”

What is 'owed'? Who does this jerk think they are? As far as I know no one is owed anything by anybody, and certainly not the over-the-top benefits demands. It almost sounds like some of these striking transit workers feel they are entitled to anything they can get because...because....well, just because.

One of the demands that I thought was outrageous? Transit workers being eligible to collect a full pension at age 55. Fifty-five? Are they kidding? Unless this is a conditional benefit, such as eligibility at 55 due to health reasons, I think it's outrageous to move the retirement age downwards rather than upwards. Let's face it, people live longer than they did even 20 years ago. Does it seem right to you that the retirement age should be lowered under those circumstances?

As a former union member, I think I have the right to say that the transit union's leaders have sold the rank and file a bill of goods by pushing for a benefits package far and away above what is sustainable. Only a few would ever truly reap the benefits of such a package and the City of New York would be hard pressed to meet the financial obligations it entails after only a few years.

In my opinion there aren't going to be any winners in this labor dispute, only losers. The biggest losers will be those dependent upon New York's MTA to get around town.

The Well Deserved Death Of Multiculturalism

Multiculturalism has been dealt yet another blow, illustrating that those promoting multicultural approaches haven't got a clue what it is they're really proposing. This is something that has peeved me for quite some time, something I've written about here, here, and here.

Multiculturalism has been the cause célèbre for the holier-than-thou left, both here and in Europe. But that cause has been tarnished because the strife that existed in the cultures of many immigrants to Europe and America has followed them to their new homes and caused the deaths of many, immigrant and native-born alike. Many European nations are now seeing the folly of allowing this feel good crap to happen. The assassination of Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands, the bombings in London, and the hate-mongering in mosques throughout the west are the direct result in bowing to those touting multiculturalism as the answer to our problems meaning, of course, the rest of the world's problems with the West. To them, we are the root cause of all evil. Of course, many of them have never really confronted true evil and most wouldn't even recognize it until they are being fed feet first into a shredder.

Multiculturalism as the left means it should be done away with and good old-fashioned assimilation should be the law of the land(s).

The UK has already started down that path, seeing that the lack of assimilation of immigrants into British society as one of its major failings. It bred isolationism and discontent among the immigrants - particularly among those of Arabic and Central Asian Islamic origins – some of which culminated in the bombings and attempted bombings in London. Changes to immigration and naturalization laws are intended to reverse the trend of multicultural isolation and help make the immigrants and their families a true part of British society.

The French have come to realize they have the same problem, only writ larger. There are large cultural enclaves around the country where the immigrants are isolated from the rest of French society. It also keeps them in poverty- immigrant unemployment rates are quite higher than the already high rates of the rest of the French – which gives those inimical to the West a breeding ground for recruitment of the disaffected to the cause of jihad.

In the Netherlands the Dutch, nominally an open and tolerant people, have had that tolerance and openness tested. They are less willing to put up with the extremists within the unassimilated immigrant community and I have doubts that they will be as tolerant as they have in the past. They, too, have learned the lesson of the flaws of multiculturalism – the worst one being that it breeds is hatred.

It's time to drive a stake in the heart of the monster called multiculturalism. It is a social experiment that has failed, killing many innocents and poisoning the hearts and minds of too many.

First Signs Of Summer

On her way home with BeezleBub from a class field trip to Boston, Deb could tell that the first 'real' weekend of summer was upon us.

It wasn't the heavy traffic. It wasn't the preponderance of vehicles with out of state plates making their way north to the lakes and mountains. It wasn't even the noticeable police presence out on the highways and byways of New Hampshire.

It was the cars or trucks towing trailers pulled over at the side of the road that was a dead giveaway that the unofficial start of the summer season was here. Let me explain.

The first sign:

Quite often when folks head off on a holiday they'll plan it ahead enough so that everything they need gets packed and put inside the car/truck/trailer/camper in a semi-orderly fashion. But the first 'summer' weekend, Memorial Day Weekend, always seems to catch people off guard. On the Friday of Memorial Day Weekend people will rush around, hurriedly packing clothing, camping stuff, beach stuff, etc. and jamming it into every available space within the aforementioned car/truck/trailer/camper. The problem is that they usually do a piss poor job of it. Somewhere between their point of departure and their destination something shifts, moves, or falls out/off, requiring a panic stop somewhere at the side of the road to retrieve, move, or secure whatever it is that fell, moved, or shifted. If it's really bad, there may be more than one panic stop required to fix or retrieve items so they will no longer fall, shift, or move in an unwanted and unpredictable manner.

The second sign:

Quite often the family camping trailer/RV/boat trailer/etc hasn't seen much use since the end of last summer. Pre-summer maintenance, if any, is quite often inadequate if not totally ignored. The consequences of such neglect can also be seen at the side of the road – flat tires or frozen bearings on trailers, overheated engines, dragging brakes, or broken bits and pieces that were once attached to the camping trailer/RV/boat trailer/etc. What's worse is that if it is a flat tire or bearing failure on a trailer, quite often one won't be able to remove the wheel because the lug nuts are damn near welded on to the studs. Even worse than that, the unfortunate people in that situation won't be able to pull over into the breakdown lane on the highway because they were in the high speed lane when the breakdown occurred and were forced to pull off to the left, against the Armco or K-rail dividing the north and southbound or east and westbound lanes. Talk about a high pucker factor.

The first signs of summer are definitely here.

Questioning The Source Of Wealth

Lee asks for help from his readers to answer the statement made by one of his co-workers:

I’m at work, and I’m arguing with a coworker about taxes. He just stated that the vast majority of rich people in this country became rich through inherited wealth, which is of course astonishingly ridiculous.

Lee's readers came through in spades, including links to a number of sources proving his co-worker wrong.

One commenter, Keggin, links to a WSJ editorial citing the book “The Millionaire Next Door” which claims that fully 81% of all millionaires earned their money. They didn't inherit their money. They made it on their own.

Another commenter, Ryley R. Hayes, contributes this to the discussion:

The Forbes 400 list is definitely a good source of info on this. It’s really kind of amazing when you realize that the richest personal fortune in human history was not inherited, but rather created by a dorky college dropout. Forbes states that about 20% of the people on the 400 list “inherited” their wealth… and even a lot of these are people who just inherited some rinky dink little company and grew it into a massive wealth machine - Rupert Murdoch is a prime example.

“ Moore would be worth twice as much, but in 2000 he donated half his Intel stake to charity-environmental causes and education, including $300 million to his alma mater.”

That’s Gordon Moore, not [Michael] BTW… those greeeeeedy rich people.

Those same greedy rich people who employ hundreds, thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of people. Darn them all to heck!!

Banished Words And Phrases

Ben Kepple comments on an article at the Lake Superior State University website about their list of banned or banished words for 2005. Ben then adds a few of his own. Now it's my turn.

There have long been words or phrases that set me off, even ones I've been guilty of using in the past. Some both Ben and LSSU have already listed. There are some that are still in use by those who should know better, but either through laziness or ignorance continue to do so. Here are some of them that make me cringe:

IRREGARDLESS - One can do something foolish regardless of the risk; or someone can hold someone in irregard. But irregardless is something of a double negative. It's always bothered me and I stopped using it when my friend Kyle Meenan pointed out that I was guilty of using it. I haven't since then.

AT THIS POINT IN TIME - Should people using this phrase actually be saying something like “Right now” or “Now” or “At this moment”? It reminds me of something I heard on a morning radio show years ago, a takeoff on an everyday event.

“At the tone the time will be 'Now'.” BEEP “It is now 'Now'.”

REALITY TV - There's not much 'real' about it that I can see. The show that comes closest to the definition is American Idol, and then only barely.

BODY WASH - It's soap, dammit!

And one of my all time favorite politically correct terms that I wish would disappear from the face of the Earth:

DIFFERENTLY ABLED - Differently able this, fargin' icehole!

Christmas Shopping - Have You Ever Been Experienced?

How many of you out there have finished your Christmas shopping? How many of you have even started your Christmas shopping? If you're like me, you've been putting it off as long as possible.

It's not the actual shopping that puts me off so much as the indecisiveness of it all. How much should I spend? What if someone else has already bought this friend/relative the same thing I'm buying? What if it's inappropriate? What if they hate it?!!

Many of these questions are the reason for my annual procrastination when it comes to Christmas shopping. Never mind that the stores and malls have been playing Christmas music since July 5th, causing most of the employees there to be more than a little out of their minds. The Christmas spirit has been sapped from their bodies by the endless litany of Christmas carols and other Christmas related songs. At this point they barely have enough will power to look a customer in the eyes, moving slowly as if in a Thorazine-induced haze. I pity these retail drones more than they will ever know.

While there are other ways to shop for the holidays that don't require a trip downtown or to the closest mall, I'm not sure I'm ready to give up on yet another Christmas tradition. After all, once we have braved the madding crowds in order to get the very last of the latest must-have toy, wresting it from the grasp of someone else bent upon possessing it and stealthily making our way to the checkout and finally out of the store/mall with our purchase, all the while feeling that victory rush of adrenaline, why would we want to replace all of that with quietly clicking away with our mouse to purchase these things online? It's just not the same. There's no challenge to it.

Of course this year is different for me in a big way because The Fiancée has taken care of almost all of my Christmas shopping, something that I'm more than willing to hand off to her. But it doesn't feel right somehow. The post-purchase adrenaline rush will be missing this year. At least I'll be able to experience a little of it when I get her Christmas gifts.....though I doubt I'm going to have to elbow anyone aside or make a grab for the last needed item on the last shelf in the back corner of the store in order to obtain the gift I need for the love of my life.

But it's not going to be the same.

A Hoax Upon You All!

It looks like you can pull the wool over government's eyes. In this case the town government of Aliso Viejo, California fell victim to an old hoax, one propagated via the Internet, though I've been aware of this one for years.

City officials were so concerned about the potentially dangerous properties of dihydrogen monoxide that they considered banning foam cups after they learned the chemical was used in their production.

For those of you forgetting your high school chemistry, dihydrogen monoxide -DHMO– also called hydroxyl acid, is more commonly known as H₂O, or water.

Back in 1997 Nathan Zohner, then a 14-year old junior high school student, based a science fair project upon the premise of how gullible the public truly is. The inspiration for his project came from spoof petitions making the rounds that were seeking to ban dihydrogen monoxide.

(Via the Instaprof)